AI-Driven Holiday Sales Surge: The New Retail Paradigm
Salesforce projects AI to drive $263 billion in global holiday orders. Discover how AI is transforming retail and why retailers must adopt AI-first strategie...
Key Takeaways
- AI-driven shopping is projected to contribute $263 billion to global holiday sales, highlighting a 21% share of total sales.
- AI-assisted traffic has surged 119% YoY, with conversion rates 700% higher than social media and 200% higher than traditional channels.
- Thriftiness and sustainability are key trends, with $64 billion expected from the resale market and 46% of consumers gifting second-hand items.
- Physical retail remains crucial, especially for Gen Z, with 75% of Gen Z shoppers planning to shop in stores.
AI-Driven Holiday Sales Surge: The New Retail Paradigm
The 2025 holiday season is shaping up to be a landmark event in the retail industry, with Salesforce projecting a record $1.25 trillion in digital sales from November to December, a 4% year-over-year (YoY) increase. The United States is forecast to see digital sales reach $288 billion, up 2% from the previous year. A significant portion of this growth—21% of total sales—is attributed to the rapid adoption of AI and agent-driven shopping journeys, which are expected to contribute $263 billion in global holiday orders.
The Rise of AI in Retail
Salesforce's analysis, based on data from 1.5 billion global shoppers across its Commerce Cloud, Marketing Cloud, Service Cloud, and Agentforce platforms, reveals a transformative shift in consumer behavior. AI-driven and agent-referred traffic has increased by 119% YoY in the first half of 2025. This surge is not just about volume; it's about quality. Conversion rates from AI-assisted traffic are more than 700% higher than those from social media and 200% higher than traditional channels like search and direct.
Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) and Trust
The trust in AI-driven recommendations has surged to 86% from 46% in May, indicating a significant shift in consumer confidence. Retailers are being urged to embrace generative engine optimization (GEO) or AI optimization (AIO) to ensure their product listings and promotions are discoverable in AI-driven search results. This is crucial as 17% of consumers are now using AI assistants or large language models (LLMs) for product discovery.
Thriftiness and Sustainability
Thriftiness and sustainability are major drivers this holiday season. Salesforce projects $64 billion in holiday sales from the resale market, with 46% of consumers planning to gift second-hand items. This trend is primarily driven by a desire to save money amid trade and tariff uncertainties. Seventy-seven percent of shoppers are expected to hold off on major purchases until Cyber Week, reinforcing its importance in the retail calendar.
The Role of Physical Retail
Despite the surge in digital sales, physical retail remains a crucial component of the retail landscape, especially for Generation Z. Three out of four Gen Z shoppers plan to shop in stores, and for every $1 they spend online, they are projected to spend $3 in physical stores. Retailers are being encouraged to create seamless omnichannel experiences to capture this generation both online and offline.
Scaling Back on Discounts
Retailers are likely to scale back discounts due to rising supply chain costs, with a 2% decrease in orders expected to include promo codes. However, AI-powered customer service is set to grow by 39% this season, helping to reduce routine interactions and driving a 2.5% decline in overall service cases. This will free human agents to focus on more complex issues, enhancing the overall customer experience.
The Bottom Line
The 2025 holiday season is poised to be a testament to the transformative power of AI in retail. By integrating AI across product discovery, promotions, and customer support, retailers can maximize conversion rates and enhance the shopping journey from browsing to checkout. Embracing an AI-first mindset is no longer optional but a necessity for businesses aiming to capture their share of the forecasted growth.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the projected growth in global digital sales for the 2025 holiday season?
Salesforce projects a 4% YoY increase in global digital sales, reaching $1.25 trillion for the November–December period.
How much are AI and agent-driven shopping journeys expected to contribute to global holiday orders?
AI and agent-driven shopping journeys are expected to contribute $263 billion to global holiday orders, representing 21% of total sales.
What is the significance of AI-assisted traffic in retail conversion rates?
AI-assisted traffic has conversion rates more than 700% higher than social media traffic and 200% higher than traditional channels like search and direct.
Why is generative engine optimization (GEO) important for retailers?
GEO or AI optimization is crucial for ensuring product listings and promotions are discoverable in AI-driven search results, which is essential as 17% of consumers are using AI assistants or LLMs for product discovery.
How are thriftiness and sustainability influencing holiday shopping trends?
Thriftiness and sustainability are major trends, with $64 billion expected from the resale market and 46% of consumers planning to gift second-hand items to save money amid trade and tariff uncertainties.
